Buenos Aires, December 17, 2025 - Former Vice President and Foreign Minister Carlos Ruckauf stated that the Nicolás Maduro regime is going through its most critical moment since coming to power, and outlined an extreme scenario for the Venezuelan leader's immediate future. According to his view, these factors worsen Maduro's situation and further reduce the chances of a negotiated exit, increasing judicial and political pressure on his figure. On the military front, the former vice president warned of a sustained increase in tension around Venezuela. This operation, he stated, involved the loss of a key shipment for networks of corrupt officials who were enriching themselves at the expense of the Venezuelan state. Ruckauf affirmed that oil smuggling had become one of the last financial lifelines for the regime and that its disruption exposed the system's fragility. In an analysis disseminated through his YouTube channel, Ruckaff categorically stated that “Maduro will flee or die,” describing the political, economic, and strategic collapse that, in his opinion, has cornered the Chavista leader under growing international pressure led by the United States. In his exposition, Ruckauf pointed out that the combination of economic sanctions, financial blockade, and the energy siege promoted by the Donald Trump administration has left the Venezuelan regime without the real capacity to sustain itself. He stated that the Venezuelan president would be exploring escape and refuge alternatives in allied countries, facing the concrete possibility of being captured or eliminated. In his opinion, the fall of these revenues has accelerated a fierce internal struggle within the Chavista power structure, where different sectors seek to ensure their own survival in the event of a possible government collapse. In his analysis, the former minister described Maduro as an isolated leader, aware that his margin for maneuver is decreasing day by day. He even suggested that a destination like Belarus could be part of these opaque negotiations. Ruckauf also alluded to the Venezuelan regime's ties to international illegal businesses, including the financing of terrorist activities and the sale of military technology, such as drones, to non-state actors. He emphasized that the suffocation of the oil sector, the main source of income for Chavism, has deepened the fiscal crisis and drastically reduced the resources available to maintain the internal loyalty of the Armed Forces and the political apparatus. According to the former official, US sanctions not only hit PDVSA but also dismantled the parallel financing mechanisms the regime used to circumvent isolation. In this context, Ruckauf highlighted Washington's offensive against Venezuelan crude smuggling, which included the capture of a supertanker operating outside international law. He affirmed that the combination of economic collapse, diplomatic isolation, internal fractures, and external military pressure leaves Maduro facing a terminal dilemma. He mentioned the presence of special naval units in the Atlantic, the deployment of elite troops in nearby countries, and movements that, according to his analysis, are consistent with the preparation of a limited-scope surgical strike. For Ruckauf, this scenario sets a countdown clock for the Chavista regime. Ruckauf mentioned contacts with Moscow and the eventual search for protection under Vladimir Putin's umbrella, although he warned that Russia would have its own strategic interests and would not necessarily guarantee a safe exit. “There is no room for an orderly transition or for the perpetuation of power,” he stated, arguing that the Venezuelan leader's departure will be abrupt and forced by external factors. The former minister's diagnosis comes in a regional climate marked by the hardening of the US stance towards Caracas and by signs of exhaustion of the Chavista model, even among former allies. He indicated that the United States would have repositioned its attack capabilities in the region, shortening response times for any potential direct action.
