Venezuela is entering a critical phase where the state and organized crime have merged into a hybrid apparatus supporting the Maduro regime for over a decade. This ecosystem is upheld by key armed actors: armed 'colectivos', the ELN insurgent group, and the 'Cartel of the Suns'. Each of these forces has its own interests and level of loyalty, creating a complex scenario for any foreign intervention, particularly from the United States.
The armed 'colectivos' are traditionally the political backbone of chavism, but their current capacity for sustained urban resistance is uncertain. Their support would likely be limited to diplomatic sanctions, public diplomacy, and possibly post-conflict economic/civilian aid, but not direct armed intervention. If the regime falls, these groups would likely focus on survival, leading to fragmented violence and territorial disputes in a post-conflict scenario.
The ELN is the most capable armed force in Venezuela, and its loyalty to the Maduro regime is not absolute. The ELN maintains a functional alliance with the regime based on control of criminal economies (gold, drug trafficking, smuggling) in exchange for state protection. In the event of a U.S. military intervention, the ELN would likely avoid direct confrontation, opting for localized resistance in border and jungle areas to avoid exposing its forces to risks without guaranteed benefits.
The 'Cartel of the Suns' is not a classic hierarchical structure but a decentralized network of military officers, politicians, and civilians involved in drug trafficking logistics. While its economic influence is significant, internal fractures are accelerating desertions and negotiations over territorial control. In the event of a U.S. intervention, different factions of the cartel might either resist to avoid extradition or seek deals with foreign forces in exchange for protection.
A key external actor is China, which views Venezuela not just as a political ally but as a hub for transnational criminal networks with state protection. Beijing strongly opposes foreign intervention but is likely to limit its response to diplomatic and economic support, avoiding direct military involvement. China's deep economic interests—access to oil, infrastructure investments, and geopolitical influence in the Caribbean—make it a crucial factor in any scenario.
Consequently, any U.S. military intervention would confront not just the Maduro regime but the entire complex web of hybrid forces where criminal organizations play a strategic role. The outcome would not be a swift resolution but a prolonged period of power reconfiguration with the active involvement of these actors, leading to uncertainty and the risk of a prolonged internal conflict.
