The collapse of Venezuela would imply a profound risk to the survival of the Cuban model and raises questions about who would come to the rescue of the chavist bloc in case of external intervention. For decades, Venezuela has sent subsidized oil, credit, and currency to Cuba, while Cuba has provided doctors, technicians, intelligence advisors (a euphemism for interrogators and torturers of opponents), and military personnel to Venezuela, cementing an asymmetrical relationship in which the Caribbean island, mired in a severe economic crisis, depends on Venezuelan resources. By Daniel Romero Buenos Aires, November 21, 2025 – Total News Agency-TNA—The close alliance between Cuba and Venezuela emerges as a determining axis of current Latin American politics: while the regime of Nicolás Maduro appears increasingly pressured by a potential U.S. attack, Havana figures as its first and perhaps only support. On the other hand, for Venezuela, depending on an island in economic decline does not provide sufficient military support against a possible U.S. attack. In conclusion, the alliance between Cuba and Venezuela today is at the intersection of two crises: that of a weakened chavist regime and that of a dependent Cuba that fears for its own survival. The true immediate lifeline remains Cuba, whose survival is tied to the continuity of the chavist regime. In Latin America, the scenario is also complex: countries like Nicaragua and Bolivia (today with a new right-wing government that no longer supports) have expressed solidarity with Caracas, but do not have military forces to intervene. Investigations indicate that the Venezuelan armed forces were trained by Cuban officers and that the security services of chavism are deeply penetrated by agents from Havana. In a context of growing U.S. military pressure in the Caribbean—including the deployment of aircraft carriers and naval exercises in the region—Caracas has sought explicit support. (Additionally, Maduro warned in 2025 that he was “preparing together with Cuba and Nicaragua to take up arms” in case of foreign intervention. Who could come to the rescue in case of external occupation against Venezuela? According to a Reuters report, crude oil and fuel supplies from Venezuela to Cuba fell by 15% in the first ten months of 2025, accelerating the island's energy crisis. The possible collapse of the Maduro regime would have direct consequences for Cuba: the loss of the oil subsidy, the interruption of intelligence and military advisory exchange, and the collapse of the paradigm of “exported revolution” that sustains its regime. A statement from the Non-Aligned Movement warned that any armed action in Venezuela could trigger a regional “spill.” The fall of Maduro would mean, for Cuba, the exhaustion of the political, economic, and strategic support it receives from Caracas. Some analysts warn that Cuba, upon losing this link, would face a crisis even greater than the current one. The collapse of Maduro would not only transform Venezuela but could trigger a domino effect affecting Cuba and the network of 21st-century transatlantic alliances. Beyond Cuba, analysts point out that Russia and China represent diplomatic and industrial support; Iran could play a symbolic role. A study by the Center for Strategic & International Studies dubs them the “fabulous five”: Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and Turkey. Documents reveal that Maduro sent letters to Russia, China, and Iran requesting radars, drones, and military aid to face a possible attack. However, the actual military involvement of these countries is limited. Russia is committed to its obligations in Ukraine; China is oriented towards the Asia-Pacific.
