Venezuela and the United States will complete six years without diplomatic relations next January. During the bilateral crisis of 2019, Nicolás Maduro and Donald Trump were the main figures, and now, both are expected to be sworn in as presidents without certainty that Trump will recognize Maduro after his disputed reelection in July.
After Trump's victory, Maduro expressed his hope that both countries could aim for a "win-win" relationship. Former ambassador Óscar Hernández Bernalette, who was the consul of Venezuela in San Francisco and Portland, believes that Trump's decision on whether he will continue to reject Maduro's reelection will be key in the evolution of bilateral relations.
Hernández Bernalette mentions that currently Caracas and Washington are going through their worst political and economic moment. He highlights that this situation mainly affects the citizens, especially the approximately 600,000 Venezuelans residing in the United States, underscoring the importance of seeking a stable relationship between both countries.
The deterioration in ties between Venezuela and the United States dates back to Hugo Chávez's rise to power in 1999, with an anti-imperialist stance that has continued with his successor Maduro. The Trump administration dealt a strong blow to the Venezuelan economy in 2019 by imposing sanctions on the oil sector, worsening the economic crisis that was already affecting the country.
Despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Venezuela and the United States have maintained communication, leading to some rapprochements during the Biden Administration. These rapprochements have resulted in some reliefs in the sanctions scheme imposed by Trump and in prisoner exchanges.
The reestablishment of operations of transnational companies in Venezuela, such as Chevron, has been made possible by these rapprochements. For Washington, the importance of maintaining contacts with a resource-rich country like Venezuela lies in economic interests and cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking.
Hernández Bernalette points out that a potential resumption of relations between both countries would benefit Venezuela as a nearby oil seller and the United States as a possible energy and tourist market. However, uncertainty about Trump's future actions upon returning to power leaves in doubt the possibility of a clear new beginning between both nations.
