The market is beginning to anticipate that Venezuela could produce more in the future. However, recovering production takes years, investment, and stability, and the country is still far from its historical levels. After a week to digest headlines, political reactions, and market movements, the focus is no longer on the initial shock, but on what can be invested in, when, and under what conditions. Venezuela is back on the radar as a bet where one can win a lot or lose a lot, but only for those who understand that time... and politics, rule here. For investors, however, speeches matter less than concrete facts: licenses, contracts, cash flows, and who can operate legally. The geopolitical message is clear: energy and minerals are back at the center of U.S. foreign policy. Colombia appears as a collateral winner through trade, growth, and currency. The exit of Maduro opens the door to a future restructuring, but the market is not rushing: without credible elections, clear rules, and real sanctions relief, the rebound has a ceiling. The impact on the crude oil price is negative due to expectations, not immediate barrels. Bond prices do not reflect a happy ending, but a conditional bet. Venezuela remains a story of deep value, high risk, and a long horizon, always conditioned by what the U.S. decides regarding sanctions and access. The potential is enormous—oil, gas, gold, minerals—but the market continues to apply a permanent punishment: without clear rules or respect for the law, assets are worth less than 'normal'. The transition opens the door but does not guarantee a return.
